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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19 – Kyiv Post

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Critical Takeaways

  • Russian forces are reportedly beginning to enhance their positions in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, and jap Zaporizhia oblasts with personnel from Kherson Oblast and mobilized servicemen.
  • US intelligence officers mentioned that Russian and Iranian officers finalized a offer in early November to manufacture Iranian drones on Russian territory.
  • Ukrainian forces ongoing counteroffensive functions on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces maintained their offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk Metropolis regardless of reviews of higher losses all around Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces ongoing efforts to fortify parts all-around ground lines of communication in southern Ukraine though battling with the partial decline of the use of the Kerch Strait Bridge.
  • Russian media resources ongoing energetic conversations of an impending 2nd wave of mobilization.
  • The quantity of Russian prisoners appears to have dropped by about 6.5% because January of 2022 very likely owing to intensive Wagner Team recruitment.
  • Russian authorities are doing the job to create handle around the information place in occupied territories and determine Ukrainian partisans.

Russian forces are reportedly beginning to reinforce their positions in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts with staff from Kherson Oblast and mobilized servicemen. The Ukrainian General Employees claimed an increase in Russian military staff in Luhansk City and mentioned that Russian forces are housing servicemen in deserted properties in Krasne and Simeikyne about 30km southeast of Luhansk Town.[1] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai mentioned that Russian forces are transferring the remnants of the Russian airborne models from proper (west) lender Kherson Oblast to Luhansk Oblast.[2] Luhansk Oblast Army Administration included that a section of redeploying Russian troops is arriving in Novoaidar, close to 55km east of Severodonetsk.[3] Advisor to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andryushenko also pointed out the arrival of redeployed staff and armed service devices to Mariupol, stating that Russian forces are putting 10,000 to 15,000 servicemen in the Mariupol Raion.[4] Andryushenko stated that newly mobilized adult males are deploying to the presumably western Donetsk Oblast frontline through Mariupol. Russian forces are reportedly making an attempt to disperse forces by deploying some things in the Hulyaipole path in japanese Zaporizhia Oblast.[5] Russia will also very likely commit supplemental mobilized forces in the coming weeks, supplied that mobilized models of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Military have concluded their education in Brest Oblast, Belarus.[6] Russian forces will probable continue on to use mobilized and redeployed servicemen to reignite offensive functions in Donetsk Oblast and preserve defensive positions in Luhansk Oblast.

US intelligence officials mentioned on November 19 that Russian and Iranian officers finalized a offer in early November to manufacture Iranian drones on Russian territory.[7] The US officers mentioned that the deal could permit Russia to “dramatically maximize its stockpile” of Iranian drones. The Washington Submit described that Russian forces have launched 400 Iranian kamikaze drones considering that to start with working with them in the Ukrainian theater in August, and Ukrainian officers have beforehand stated that Ukrainian forces down 70% of drones just before they can strike their targets.[8] The US officials said that it is unclear what guidance Russia will present to Iran in return for the drones.[9] The deepening connection amongst Russia and Iran, especially in the provision of prolonged-vary munitions this sort of as kamikaze drones and precision missiles, might permit Russian forces to sustain their marketing campaign in opposition to Ukrainian electricity infrastructure for a lengthier period than their diminishing stockpile of munitions would if not make it possible for. This report also indicates that Russia can somehow circumvent Western sanctions to get the microchips essential to software the drones it programs on manufacturing. A Russian milblogger claimed that the deal permits Russian officials to declare they construct Russian drones—thus giving an informational win—having previously mentioned that the domestic production of Iranian drones on Russian territory humiliates Russia.[10]

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